Your current location is:Fxscam News > Exchange Dealers
Soybean meal is gaining strength while soybean oil remains under pressure.
Fxscam News2025-07-22 21:23:25【Exchange Dealers】0People have watched
IntroductionChina Foreign Exchange Trading Center Official website,Foreign exchange app trading platform,On Friday (May 30), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grain market continued its divergent trend und
On Friday (May 30),China Foreign Exchange Trading Center Official website the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) grain market continued its divergent trend under the influence of multiple factors. A weakening dollar, risk aversion due to Trump's tariff policy, rotational arbitrage funds, and pressure from South American supplies were the main driving variables of the market.
Overall Market Review:
In terms of main contracts, U.S. soybeans fell by 0.52% to $10.46/bushel, while soybean oil plummeted by 2.19%, hitting a two-week low of 47.71 cents/bushel. In contrast, corn rose by 0.17% to $4.47-3/4 per bushel, wheat increased by 0.33% to close at $5.36 per bushel, and soybean meal rose by 0.20%, fluctuating in the range of $292.5-$297/short ton.
Analysis of Each Variety:
Wheat: Support from Lower Dollar, Shift to Net Long Positions
The weakening of the U.S. dollar index to 99.209 provided a competitive edge for U.S. wheat exports. Technically, wheat prices held within the 527.25-534.75 cents range. Position data showed that funds made a short-term net purchase of 1,000 futures contracts, reflecting a shift from bearish to cautiously optimistic sentiment. Although increased supply from Russia and India exerted pressure, export expectations and geopolitical factors may still offer support.
Soybeans: Favorable Weather and South American Pressure, Bearish Sentiment Dominates
The forecast for the U.S. Midwest's soybean-producing areas indicates above-average rainfall in the next 6-10 days, which is beneficial for crop growth. Meanwhile, fierce competition from South American supplies continues to pressure soybean prices. Over the past five trading days, funds increased their net short positions by 7,500 contracts, indicating sustained bearish sentiment. Technically, soybean prices are expected to oscillate within the $10.30-$10.60/bushel range in the short term.
Soybean Oil: Noticeable Arbitrage Pressure, Bearish Sentiment Dominates
Soybean oil has become a casualty of oil and meal arbitrage trades. The main contract fell below the 50-day moving average to 47.71 cents/bushel. Funds significantly reduced positions, with short-term net shorts increasing by 9,000 contracts. Despite stable FOB export premiums, lack of demand flexibility continues to dampen prices.
Soybean Meal: Arbitrage Funds Boost Prices, Bullish Sentiment Returns
Soybean meal benefited from a preference for arbitrage funds, coupled with stable export expectations, pushing prices above $290/short ton. Recently, funds made a net purchase of 8,000 contracts, bolstering bullish sentiment. It is expected that the market will run stronger within the $290-$305/short ton range moving forward.
Corn: South American Supply Pressure and Fund Shorts Limit Prices
Although weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest are favorable, the listing of new crops from South America is dragging on market sentiment. Net short positions of funds have increased significantly to 95,250 contracts, indicating a lack of confidence. It is expected that corn prices will remain within the $4.40-$4.60/bushel range in the short term.
Future Outlook:
The CBOT grain market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with noticeable disparities among various commodities. Wheat may stabilize due to improved export expectations, while soybeans and corn will continue to be constrained by supply pressures. Supported by arbitrage and exports, soybean meal is likely to perform strongly, while soybean oil will be restrained in the short term by arbitrage structures and weak demand. The market's focus will be on the latest USDA export sales data, South American harvest progress, weather changes, and the impacts of policy uncertainties. Overall, trading strategies need to closely follow position dynamics and fundamental developments to adapt to the ever-changing market landscape.
Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.
Very good!(6525)
Related articles
- Market Insights: Feb 21st, 2024
- Tesla significantly reduces Model Y production, possibly seeking a rapid transition
- Due to the increase in production in the United States, grain prices in Chicago have declined.
- FDA approves Eli Lilly's new drug for early Alzheimer's treatment.
- Market Insights: Nov 29th, 2023
- Gold prices broke through a key level, with analysts targeting 2438.80 next
- Aston Martin unveils new limited
- Oil prices fall below a key level as OPECextends production cuts for two more months.
- CP MARKETS Review: Regulated
- US credit card firm to sell $10B in student loans, Carlyle and KKR are top bidders
Popular Articles
- August 17 Industry Dynamics: FCA Adds BITMETALITFX and Another Platform to the Blacklist
- July saw a surge in gold ETF inflows, reflecting higher demand for gold as a safe haven.
- FDA approves Eli Lilly's new drug for early Alzheimer's treatment.
- Australia Star Group announces new CEO and General Manager, previously worked at Blackstone.
Webmaster recommended
8/16 Industry Update: Mainland China and Hong Kong will support Stock Connect via block trades.
US credit card firm to sell $10B in student loans, Carlyle and KKR are top bidders
French authorities detained Telegram's founder, dropping TON coins by 9%.
US rate hike expectations rise, dollar strengthens, oil prices fall.
Hollywood Proposes New Offer to Striking Writers: Involves Artificial Intelligence and Audience Data
Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy approved in China, sales time and price not announced
[Morning Market] Inflation Returns Above 2%, Gold Rises but Worries Persist
Tesla significantly reduces Model Y production, possibly seeking a rapid transition